MARKET RISK SCENARIOS

MARKET RISK SCENARIOS

Page:

      MARKET RISK SCENARIOS FOR THE INDUSTRY

1

~ .. MARKETS

~ ...... TERMS USED IN THIS REPORT

~ ...... VALUE TERMS AND VOLUME TERMS

2

~ ...... MARKET VALUE : Historic + Current

~ ...... ~ PRODUCT SECTOR : VALUE

3

~ ...... MARKET VALUE FORECAST : Current to 2028

~ ...... ~ PRODUCT SECTOR : VALUE

4

~ ...... PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT : Historic + Current

~ ...... ~ PRODUCT SECTOR : % OF TOTAL MARKET

6

~ ...... PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT FORECAST : Current to 2028

~ ...... ~ PRODUCT SECTOR : % OF TOTAL MARKET

7

~ .... MARKET SCENARIO FORECASTS : Current to 2028

9

~ ...... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario

10

~ ...... Base Forecast : Worst Market Scenario

11

~ ...... New Product Development Market Scenario

12

~ ...... Market Segmentation Market Scenario

13

~ ...... Distribution Channel Improvement Market Scenario

14

~ ...... Price Cutting Effect Market Scenario

15

~ ...... Price Increase Effect Market Scenario

16

~ ...... Quality Improvement Market Scenario

17

~ ...... Export Sales Improvement Market Scenario

18

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Increase : + 2% : Market Scenario

19

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Increase : + 4% : Market Scenario

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~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Increase : + 6% : Market Scenario

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~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Increase : + 8% : Market Scenario

22

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Increase : +10% : Market Scenario

23

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Increase : +12% : Market Scenario

24

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Decrease : - 2% : Market Scenario

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~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Decrease : - 4% : Market Scenario

26

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Decrease : - 6% : Market Scenario

27

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Decrease : - 8% : Market Scenario

28

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Decrease : -10% : Market Scenario

29

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Decrease : -12% : Market Scenario

30

~ ...... Fixed Marketing Cost Objectives Market Scenario

31

~ ...... Variable Marketing Cost Objectives Market Scenario

32

~ ...... Distribution & Product Delivery Cost Objectives Market Scenario

33

~ ...... Selling Cost Objectives Market Scenario

34

~ ...... Advertising Cost Objectives Market Scenario

35

~ ...... Promotional & Pricing Cost Objectives Market Scenario

36

~ ...... Market Share Building Objectives Market Scenario

37

~ ...... Market Share Holding Objectives Market Scenario

38

~ ...... Market Share Harvesting Objectives Market Scenario

39

~ ...... Sales Cost Improvement Market Scenario

40

~ ...... Promotional Expenditure Market Scenario

41

~ ...... Target Markets Development Market Scenario

42

~ ...... Order Taking Improvements Market Scenario

43

~ ...... Product Positioning Market Scenario

44

~ ...... Product Branding + Multi-branding Investment Market Scenario

45

~ ...... Customer / Order Processing Systems Investment Market Scenario

46

~ ...... Overseas Development Market Scenario

47

~ ...... Sales Personnel + Staff Improvement Market Scenario Market Scenario

48

~ ...... Sales & Marketing Cost : Market Scenario

49

~ ...... Customer Handling Improvements Market Scenario

50

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation : Market Scenario

51

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation : Market Scenario

52

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation : Market Scenario

53

~ ...... Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction : Market Scenario

54

~ ...... MARKET DATA NOTES

~ ...... MARKET ENVIRONMENT

~ ...... Market Growth

~ ...... Market Structure

~ ...... Market/s Serviced

~ ...... TRADING AREA

~ ...... MARKET COVERAGE

56

~ .... Market forecast notes

67

~ .... MARKET NORMS

69

~ ...... MARKET GROWTH RATE ANNUAL INDICES

~ ...... MARKET MULTIPLIERS

~ ...... INDUSTRY INDICES

~ ...... INDUSTRY PROFILE

70

~ ...... CUSTOMER PROFILES

72

~ .... MARKETING COSTS

74

~ .... HISTORIC MARKETING COSTS & MARGINS

~ ...... SALES COSTS

~ ...... DISTRIBUTION + HANDLING COSTS

~ ...... ADVERTISING COSTS

~ ...... AFTER-SALES COSTS

~ ...... TOTAL MARKETING COSTS

75

~ .... HISTORIC MARKETING COST RATIOS & MARGINS

~ ...... PROFIT RATIOS

~ ...... MARKETING RATIO

~ ...... MARKETING OPERATIONAL RATIOS

~ ...... MARKETING COSTS

76

~ .... MARKETING COSTS FORECAST

~ ...... SALES COSTS FORECAST

~ ...... DISTRIBUTION + HANDLING COSTS FORECAST

~ ...... ADVERTISING COSTS FORECAST

~ ...... AFTER-SALES COSTS FORECAST

~ ...... TOTAL MARKETING COSTS FORECAST

77

~ .... MARKETING MARGINS + RATIOS FORECAST

~ ...... PROFIT RATIOS FORECAST

~ ...... MARKETING RATIOS FORECAST

~ ...... MARKETING OPERATIONAL RATIOS FORECAST

~ ...... MARKETING FACTORS FORECAST

78

~ .... Financial forecast notes

79

~ .... HISTORIC FINANCIAL DATA

80

~ .... Historic Balance Sheet

81

~ ~ ...... Historic Costs & Margins

82

~ ~ ........ Historic Financial Ratios & Margins

83

~ ~ .......... Historic Operational Ratios & Margins

84

~ .... Financial forecast notes

85

~ .... MARKET FINANCIAL FORECASTS : Current to 2028

86

~ .... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Balance Sheet Forecast

87

~ ...... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Operational Costs Forecast

88

~ ........ Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Financial Ratios

89

~ .......... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Operational Margins

91

~ .... Financial data definitions

  MARKET DEFINITIONS

INDEX

ACTUAL PRICE PAID, 1
Advertising Cost Objectives Market Scenario, 34
ADVERTISING COSTS, 74
ADVERTISING COSTS FORECAST, 76
AFTER-SALES COSTS, 74
AFTER-SALES COSTS FORECAST, 76
Average Annual Sales Growth Rate, 68
AVERAGE GROWTH TRENDS, 59

Balance Sheet Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario, 86
Balance Sheet Historic, 80
Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation : Market Scenario, 50
Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation : Market Scenario, 51
Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation : Market Scenario, 52
Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario, 9
Base Forecast : Worst Market Scenario, 10
Buyer Age Profile in the range 0-19 Years, 68
Buyer Age Profile in the range 20-24 Years, 68
Buyer Age Profile in the range 25-34 Years, 68
Buyer Age Profile in the range 35-44 Years, 68
Buyer Age Profile in the range 45-54 Years, 68
Buyer Age Profile in the range 55-64 Years, 68
Buyer Age Profile in the range 65+ / Years, 68
Buyer Profile in the AB Social Group, 68
Buyer Profile in the C1 Social Group, 68
Buyer Profile in the C2 Social Group, 68
Buyer Profile in the DE / Unallocated Social Group, 68

Capacity Utilization as a measure of Standard Capacity, 68
Costs & Margins Historic, 81
Customer Handling Improvements Market Scenario, 49
Customer & End User Factors, 54
Customer / Order Processing Systems Investment, 45

DATABASE GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE, 65
Discounted & Promotional Market Level, 68
Distribution Channel Improvement Market Scenario, 13
Distribution & Product Delivery Cost Objectives, 32
DISTRIBUTION + HANDLING COSTS, 74
DISTRIBUTION + HANDLING COSTS FORECAST, 76

End User Age Profile in the range 0-19 Years, 68
End User Age Profile in the range 20-24 Years, 68
End User Age Profile in the range 25-34 Years, 68
End User Age Profile in the range 35-44 Years, 68
End User Age Profile in the range 45-54 Years, 68
End User Age Profile in the range 55-64 Years, 68
End User Age Profile in the range 65+ / Years, 68
End User or final distribution level, 1
End User Profile in the AB Social Group, 68
End User Profile in the C1 Social Group, 68
End User Profile in the C2 Social Group, 68
End User Profile in the DE / Unallocated Social Group, 68
End User & Consumer Market Level, 68
Enterprises within the Range 100+ Employees, 68
Enterprises within the Range 1-19 Employees, 68
Enterprises within the Range 20-99 Employees, 68
Enterprises within Unspecified / Unallocated Employees, 68
EXCHANGE RATE, 64
Export Sales Improvement Market Scenario, 17

Financial data definitions, 91
Financial forecast notes, 78, 84
Financial Ratios Base Forecast : Median Market, 88
Financial Ratios & Margins Historic, 82
Fixed Marketing Cost Objectives Market Scenario, 30
FORECAST DATA AND TIME SERIES, 57

HISTORIC DATA AND TIME SERIES, 57
HISTORIC FINANCIAL DATA, 79
HISTORIC MARKETING COST RATIOS & MARGINS, 75
HISTORIC MARKETING COSTS & MARGINS, 74

Immediate Consumer and End User Customers, 68
Immediate Non-Specific Customers / Unallocated, 68
Immediate OEM and Manufacturing Customers, 68
Immediate Wholesale & Retail Customers, 68
Index of Comparative Advertising Expenditure, 68
Index of Comparative General Promotional Expenditure, 68
Index of Comparative Salesforce and Selling Expenditure, 68
INDUSTRY SHIPMENT VALUES OR PRICES, 1
Instable Market Share as an Index of Total Market, 68

MARKET COVERAGE, 54
MARKET DATA DEFINITIONS, 56
MARKET DATA NOTES, 54
MARKET ENVIRONMENT, 54
MARKET FINANCIAL SCENARIOS FORECASTS, 85
Market forecast notes, 56
Market Growth, 54
MARKET NORMS, 67
MARKET SCENARIO FORECASTS, 7
Market Segmentation Market Scenario, 12
Market Share Building Objectives Market Scenario, 36
Market Share Harvesting Objectives Market Scenario, 38
Market Share Holding Objectives Market Scenario, 37
Market Structure, 54
MARKET VALUE FORECAST : Current to 2028, 3
MARKET VALUE : Historic + Current, 2
MARKETING COSTS, 72, 75
MARKETING COSTS FORECAST, 76
Marketing Expenditure Decrease : - 2% : Market Scenario, 24
Marketing Expenditure Decrease : - 4% : Market Scenario, 25
Marketing Expenditure Decrease : - 6% : Market Scenario, 26
Marketing Expenditure Decrease : - 8% : Market Scenario, 27
Marketing Expenditure Decrease : -10% : Market Scenario, 28
Marketing Expenditure Decrease : -12% : Market Scenario, 29
Marketing Expenditure Increase : + 2% : Market Scenario, 18
Marketing Expenditure Increase : + 4% : Market Scenario, 19
Marketing Expenditure Increase : + 6% : Market Scenario, 20
Marketing Expenditure Increase : + 8% : Market Scenario, 21
Marketing Expenditure Increase : +10% : Market Scenario, 22
Marketing Expenditure Increase : +12% : Market Scenario, 23
MARKETING FACTORS FORECAST, 77
MARKETING MARGINS + RATIOS FORECAST, 77
MARKETING OPERATIONAL RATIOS, 75
MARKETING OPERATIONAL RATIOS FORECAST, 77
MARKETING RATIO, 75
MARKETING RATIOS FORECAST, 77
MARKETS, 1
Market/s Serviced, 54

New Product Development Market Scenario, 11
New Products as a % of the Total Output, 68
NOTES AND DEFINITIONS, 56

OEM & Manufacturers Market Level, 68
Operational Costs Base Forecast : Median Market, 87
Operational Margins Base Forecast : Median Market, 89
Operational Ratios & Margins Historic, 83
Order Taking Improvements Market Scenario, 42
Overseas Development Market Scenario, 46

Plant and Equipment in Use over years 9 old, 68
Plant and Equipment in Use within the range 0-3 years, 68
Plant and Equipment in Use within the range 3-6 years, 68
Plant and Equipment in Use within the range 6-9 years, 68
Plant and Equipment Investment Equal to Depreciation, 68
Plant and Equipment Investment greater than Depreciation, 68
Plant and Equipment Investment Less than Depreciation, 68
Plant and Equipment Investment - Unallocated, 68
Plant & Equipment Average Annual Investment, 68
Price actually paid net of discounting, 1
Price Cutting Effect Market Scenario, 14
Price Increase Effect Market Scenario, 15
PRICE PAID BY End Users , 1
PROBLEM OF CURRENCY CONVERSIONS, 64
Product Adoption Rates, 68
Product Branding + Multi-branding Investment Market, 44
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT FORECAST : Current to 2028, 6
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT : Historic + Current, 4
Product Positioning Market Scenario, 43
Product Prices as a % of the Market Average, 68
Product Sales Conversion Rates, 68
PRODUCT SECTOR : % OF TOTAL MARKET, 4, 6
PRODUCT SECTOR : VALUE, 2, 3
PROFIT RATIOS, 75
PROFIT RATIOS FORECAST, 77
Promotional Expenditure Market Scenario, 40
Promotional & Pricing Cost Objectives Market Scenario, 35

Quality Improvement Market Scenario, 16

Relative Employee Compensation Index, 68
Relative Forward Integration Index, 68
Relative output of Products of a Superior Quality, 68
REPORT TYPES, 61
Retail Sale Prices, 1
RETAIL VALUES OR PRICES, 1
Retailer & Added Value Retailer Market Level, 68

Sales Cost Improvement Market Scenario, 39
SALES COSTS, 74
SALES COSTS FORECAST, 76
Sales Personnel + Staff Improvement Market Scenario, 47
Sales & Marketing Cost : Market Scenario, 48
Selling Cost Objectives Market Scenario, 33
Standardized Products & Services Index, 68
Supplier Concentration = 20 Largest, 68
Supplier Concentration = 50 Largest, 68
Supplier Concentration = 8 Largest, 68
Supplier Concentration = Unspecified / Unallocated, 68
Supplier or Producer Prices, 1

Target Markets Development Market Scenario, 41
TERMS USED IN THIS REPORT, 1
TOTAL MARKETING COSTS, 74
TOTAL MARKETING COSTS FORECAST, 76
TRADING AREA, 54
Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction, 53

VALUE TERMS AND VOLUME TERMS, 1
Variable Marketing Cost Objectives Market Scenario, 31

Wholesale or Distributors Sale Prices, 1
WHOLESALE VALUES OR PRICES, 1
Wholesale & Distributor Market Level, 68

YEAR-ON-YEAR TREND, 59