PROFIT RISK SCENARIOS

PROFIT RISK SCENARIOS

Page:

      PROFIT RISK SCENARIOS FOR THE INDUSTRY

1

~ .... MARKETS Historic + Forecast: Current to 2028

~ ...... TERMS USED IN THIS REPORT

~ ...... VALUE TERMS AND VOLUME TERMS

2

~ ...... SUMMARY

3

~ ...... FORECAST

4

~ ...... MARKET DATA NOTES

~ ...... MARKET ENVIRONMENT

~ ...... Market Growth

~ ...... Market Structure

~ ...... Market/s Serviced

~ ...... TRADING AREA

~ ...... MARKET COVERAGE

5

~ .... Market forecast notes

6

~ ...... HISTORIC DATA AND TIME SERIES

~ ...... FORECAST DATA AND TIME SERIES

7

~ ...... LONG-RANGE HISTORIC DATA AND TIME SERIES

8

~ ...... REPORT TYPES

12

~ ...... DATABASE GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE

13

~ .... HISTORIC FINANCIAL DATA

~ ...... PROFIT RISK FINANCIAL ISSUES

14

~ .... Historic Balance Sheet

15

~ ~ ...... Historic Costs & Margins

16

~ ~ ........ Historic Financial Ratios & Margins

17

~ ~ .......... Historic Operational Ratios & Margins

18

~ .... Financial forecast notes

19

~ .... PROFIT RISK SCENARIOS BALANCE SHEET FORECASTS : Current to 2028

20

~ .... Base Forecast : Best Market Scenario Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Base Forecast : Best Market Scenario Operational Costs Forecast

21

~ ........ Base Forecast : Best Market Scenario Financial Ratios

~ .......... Base Forecast : Best Market Scenario Operational Margins

22

~ .... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Operational Costs Forecast

23

~ ........ Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Financial Ratios

~ .......... Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario Operational Margins

24

~ .... Base Forecast : Worst Market Scenario Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Base Forecast : Worst Market Scenario Operational Costs Forecast

25

~ ........ Base Forecast : Worst Market Scenario Financial Ratios

~ .......... Base Forecast : Worst Market Scenario Operational Margins

26

~ .... Marketing Expenditure Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Marketing Expenditure Operational Costs Forecast

27

~ ........ Marketing Expenditure Financial Ratios

~ .......... Marketing Expenditure Operational Margins

28

~ .... New Plant + Equipment Investment Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... New Plant + Equipment Investment Operational Costs Forecast

29

~ ........ New Plant + Equipment Investment Financial Ratios

~ .......... New Plant + Equipment Investment Operational Margins

30

~ .... New Technology Investment Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... New Technology Investment Operational Costs Forecast

31

~ ........ New Technology Investment Financial Ratios

~ .......... New Technology Investment Operational Margins

32

~ .... Cost Structure Improvement Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Cost Structure Improvement Operational Costs Forecast

33

~ ........ Cost Structure Improvement Financial Ratios

~ .......... Cost Structure Improvement Operational Margins

34

~ .... Administrative & General Expense Objectives Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Administrative & General Expense Objectives Operational Costs Forecast

35

~ ........ Administrative & General Expense Objectives Financial Ratios

~ .......... Administrative & General Expense Objectives Operational Margins

36

~ .... Research & Product Cost Objectives Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Research & Product Cost Objectives Operational Costs Forecast

37

~ ........ Research & Product Cost Objectives Financial Ratios

~ .......... Research & Product Cost Objectives Operational Margins

38

~ .... Systems Investment Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Systems Investment Operational Costs Forecast

39

~ ........ Systems Investment Financial Ratios

~ .......... Systems Investment Operational Margins

40

~ .... Materials & Energy Cost Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Materials & Energy Cost Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

41

~ ........ Materials & Energy Cost Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Materials & Energy Cost Scenarios Operational Margins

42

~ .... Payroll & Staff Cost Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Payroll & Staff Cost Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

43

~ ........ Payroll & Staff Cost Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Payroll & Staff Cost Scenarios Operational Margins

44

~ .... Administration Cost Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Administration Cost Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

45

~ ........ Administration Cost Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Administration Cost Scenarios Operational Margins

46

~ .... Capital Cost Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Capital Cost Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

47

~ ........ Capital Cost Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Capital Cost Scenarios Operational Margins

48

~ .... Plant & Equipment Cost Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Plant & Equipment Cost Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

49

~ ........ Plant & Equipment Cost Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Plant & Equipment Cost Scenarios Operational Margins

50

~ .... Depreciation & Capitalization Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Depreciation & Capitalization Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

51

~ ........ Depreciation & Capitalization Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Depreciation & Capitalization Scenarios Operational Margins

52

~ .... Short Term Borrowing Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Short Term Borrowing Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

53

~ ........ Short Term Borrowing Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Short Term Borrowing Scenarios Operational Margins

54

~ .... Long Term Financial Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Long Term Financial Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

55

~ ........ Long Term Financial Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Long Term Financial Scenarios Operational Margins

56

~ .... Financial & Debt Servicing Cost Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Financial & Debt Servicing Cost Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

57

~ ........ Financial & Debt Servicing Cost Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Financial & Debt Servicing Cost Scenarios Operational Margins

58

~ .... Trading & Operating Margins & Profitability Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Trading & Operating Margins & Profitability Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

59

~ ........ Trading & Operating Margins & Profitability Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Trading & Operating Margins & Profitability Scenarios Operational Margins

60

~ .... Profit Impact From Materials Cost Reduction Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Profit Impact From Materials Cost Reduction Operational Costs Forecast

61

~ ........ Profit Impact From Materials Cost Reduction Financial Ratios

~ .......... Profit Impact From Materials Cost Reduction Operational Margins

62

~ .... Profit Impact From Payroll Cost Reduction Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Profit Impact From Payroll Cost Reduction Operational Costs Forecast

63

~ ........ Profit Impact From Payroll Cost Reduction Financial Ratios

~ .......... Profit Impact From Payroll Cost Reduction Operational Margins

64

~ .... Profit Impact From Process Cost Reduction Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Profit Impact From Process Cost Reduction Operational Costs Forecast

65

~ ........ Profit Impact From Process Cost Reduction Financial Ratios

~ .......... Profit Impact From Process Cost Reduction Operational Margins

66

~ .... Profit Impact From Distribution Cost Reduction Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Profit Impact From Distribution Cost Reduction Operational Costs Forecast

67

~ ........ Profit Impact From Distribution Cost Reduction Financial Ratios

~ .......... Profit Impact From Distribution Cost Reduction Operational Margins

68

~ .... Capital Investments Options: Process Plant & Equipment Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Capital Investments Options: Process Plant & Equipment Operational Costs Forecast

69

~ ........ Capital Investments Options: Process Plant & Equipment Financial Ratios

~ .......... Capital Investments Options: Process Plant & Equipment Operational Margins

70

~ .... Capital Investments Options: Premises Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Capital Investments Options: Premises Operational Costs Forecast

71

~ ........ Capital Investments Options: Premises Financial Ratios

~ .......... Capital Investments Options: Premises Operational Margins

72

~ .... Capital Investments Options: Distribution / Handling Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Capital Investments Options: Distribution / Handling Operational Costs Forecast

73

~ ........ Capital Investments Options: Distribution / Handling Financial Ratios

~ .......... Capital Investments Options: Distribution / Handling Operational Margins

74

~ .... Capital Investments Options: Customer Handling Systems Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Capital Investments Options: Customer Handling Systems Operational Costs Forecast

75

~ ........ Capital Investments Options: Customer Handling Systems Financial Ratios

~ .......... Capital Investments Options: Customer Handling Systems Operational Margins

76

~ .... Product Cost Improvements Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Product Cost Improvements Operational Costs Forecast

77

~ ........ Product Cost Improvements Financial Ratios

~ .......... Product Cost Improvements Operational Margins

78

~ .... Customer Handling Improvements Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Customer Handling Improvements Operational Costs Forecast

79

~ ........ Customer Handling Improvements Financial Ratios

~ .......... Customer Handling Improvements Operational Margins

80

~ .... New Equity Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... New Equity Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

81

~ ........ New Equity Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... New Equity Scenarios Operational Margins

82

~ .... Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

83

~ ........ Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios Operational Margins

84

~ .... Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

85

~ ........ Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios Operational Margins

86

~ .... Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

87

~ ........ Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios Operational Margins

88

~ .... Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

89

~ ........ Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios Operational Margins

90

~ .... Bond / Debentures Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Bond / Debentures Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

91

~ ........ Bond / Debentures Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Bond / Debentures Scenarios Operational Margins

92

~ .... Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

93

~ ........ Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios Operational Margins

94

~ .... Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

95

~ ........ Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios Operational Margins

96

~ .... Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

97

~ ........ Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios Operational Margins

98

~ .... Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

99

~ ........ Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios Operational Margins

100

~ .... Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

101

~ ........ Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios Operational Margins

102

~ .... Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios Balance Sheet Forecast

~ ...... Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios Operational Costs Forecast

103

~ ........ Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios Financial Ratios

~ .......... Trading Credit Extension & Margin Reduction Scenarios Operational Margins

104

~ .... Financial data definitions

 

INDEX

ACTUAL PRICE PAID, 1

Balance Sheet Administration Cost Scenarios, 44
Balance Sheet Administrative & General Expense Objectives, 34
Balance Sheet Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios, 94
Balance Sheet Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios, 96
Balance Sheet Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios, 92
Balance Sheet Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation Scenarios, 84
Balance Sheet Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation Scenarios, 86
Balance Sheet Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation Scenarios, 88
Balance Sheet Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios, 82
Balance Sheet Base Forecast : Best Market Scenarios, 20
Balance Sheet Base Forecast : Median Market Scenarios, 22
Balance Sheet Base Forecast : Worst Market Scenarios, 24
Balance Sheet Bond / Debentures Scenarios, 90
Balance Sheet Capital Cost Scenarios, 46
Balance Sheet Capital Investments Options: Customers, 74
Balance Sheet Capital Investments Options: Distribution, 72
Balance Sheet Capital Investments Options: Premises, 70
Balance Sheet Capital Investments Options: Processes, 68
Balance Sheet Cost Structure Improvement, 32
Balance Sheet Customer Handling Improvements, 78
Balance Sheet Depreciation & Capitalization Scenarios, 50
Balance Sheet Financial & Debt Servicing Cost, 56
Balance Sheet Historic, 14
Balance Sheet Long Term Financial Scenarios, 54
Balance Sheet Marketing Expenditure, 26
Balance Sheet Materials & Energy Cost Scenarios, 40
Balance Sheet New Equity Scenarios, 80
Balance Sheet New Plant + Equipment Investment, 28
Balance Sheet New Technology Investment, 30
Balance Sheet Payroll & Staff Cost Scenarios, 42
Balance Sheet Plant & Equipment Cost Scenarios, 48
Balance Sheet Product Cost Improvements, 76
Balance Sheet Profit Impact From Distribution Cost, 66
Balance Sheet Profit Impact From Materials Cost, 60
Balance Sheet Profit Impact From Payroll Cost, 62
Balance Sheet Profit Impact From Process Cost, 64
Balance Sheet Research & Product Cost Objectives, 36
Balance Sheet Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios, 100
Balance Sheet Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios, 98
Balance Sheet Short Term Borrowing Scenarios, 52
Balance Sheet Systems Investment, 38
Balance Sheet Trading Credit Extension & Margin, 102
Balance Sheet Trading & Operating Margins & Profit, 58
BASE YEAR, 5

Costs & Margins Historic, 15
Customer & End User Factors, 4

DATABASE GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE, 12

End User or final distribution level, 1

Financial data definitions, 104
Financial forecast notes, 18
Financial Ratios Administration Cost Scenarios, 45
Financial Ratios Administrative & General Expenses, 35
Financial Ratios Asset Sales: 10% of Assets Scenarios, 95
Financial Ratios Asset Sales: 25% of Assets Scenarios, 97
Financial Ratios Asset Sales: 5% of Assets Scenarios, 93
Financial Ratios Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation, 85
Financial Ratios Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation, 87
Financial Ratios Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation, 89
Financial Ratios Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios, 83
Financial Ratios Base Forecast : Best Market Scenario, 21
Financial Ratios Base Forecast : Median Market Scenario, 23
Financial Ratios Base Forecast : Worst Market Scenario, 25
Financial Ratios Bond / Debentures Scenarios, 91
Financial Ratios Capital Cost Scenarios, 47
Financial Ratios Capital Investments Options: Customers, 75
Financial Ratios Capital Investments Options: Distribution, 73
Financial Ratios Capital Investments Options: Premises, 71
Financial Ratios Capital Investments Options: Processes, 69
Financial Ratios Cost Structure Improvement, 33
Financial Ratios Customer Handling Improvements, 79
Financial Ratios Depreciation & Capitalization, 51
Financial Ratios Financial & Debt Servicing Cost, 57
Financial Ratios Long Term Financial Scenarios, 55
Financial Ratios Marketing Expenditure, 27
Financial Ratios Materials & Energy Cost Scenarios, 41
Financial Ratios New Equity Scenarios, 81
Financial Ratios New Plant + Equipment Investment, 29
Financial Ratios New Technology Investment, 31
Financial Ratios Payroll & Staff Cost Scenarios, 43
Financial Ratios Plant & Equipment Cost Scenarios, 49
Financial Ratios Product Cost Improvements, 77
Financial Ratios Profit Impact From Distribution, 67
Financial Ratios Profit Impact From Materials Cost, 61
Financial Ratios Profit Impact From Payroll Cost, 63
Financial Ratios Profit Impact From Process Cost, 65
Financial Ratios Research & Product Cost Objective, 37
Financial Ratios Self Generated Funds: Best Scenarios, 101
Financial Ratios Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenarios, 99
Financial Ratios Short Term Borrowing Scenarios, 53
Financial Ratios Systems Investment, 39
Financial Ratios Trading Credit Extension & Margin, 103
Financial Ratios Trading & Operating Margins, 59
Financial Ratios & Margins Historic, 16
FORECAST DATA AND TIME SERIES, 6
Forecasting model, 5

HISTORIC DATA AND TIME SERIES, 6
HISTORIC FINANCIAL DATA, 13

INDUSTRY SHIPMENT VALUES OR PRICES, 1

LONG-RANGE HISTORIC DATA AND TIME SERIES, 7

MARKET COVERAGE, 4
MARKET ENVIRONMENT, 4
Market forecast notes, 5
Market Growth, 4
Market Structure, 4
MARKETS, 1
MARKET DATA NOTES, 4
Market/s Serviced, 4
Median probability, 5

Operational Costs Administration Cost Scenarios, 44
Operational Costs Administrative & General Expenses, 34
Operational Costs Asset Sales: 10% of Assets, 94
Operational Costs Asset Sales: 25% of Assets, 96
Operational Costs Asset Sales: 5% of Assets, 92
Operational Costs Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation, 84
Operational Costs Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation, 86
Operational Costs Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation, 88
Operational Costs Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios, 82
Operational Costs Base Forecast : Best Market, 20
Operational Costs Base Forecast : Median Market, 22
Operational Costs Base Forecast : Worst Market, 24
Operational Costs Bond / Debentures Scenarios, 90
Operational Costs Capital Cost Scenarios, 46
Operational Costs Capital Investments: Customers, 74
Operational Costs Capital Investments: Distribution, 72
Operational Costs Capital Investments: Premises, 70
Operational Costs Capital Investments: Processes, 68
Operational Costs Cost Structure Improvement, 32
Operational Costs Customer Handling Improvements, 78
Operational Costs Depreciation & Capitalization, 50
Operational Costs Financial & Debt Servicing Cost, 56
Operational Costs Long Term Financial Scenarios, 54
Operational Costs Marketing Expenditure, 26
Operational Costs Materials & Energy Cost Scenario, 40
Operational Costs New Equity Scenarios, 80
Operational Costs New Plant + Equipment Investment, 28
Operational Costs New Technology Investment, 30
Operational Costs Payroll & Staff Cost Scenarios, 42
Operational Costs Plant & Equipment Cost Scenarios, 48
Operational Costs Product Cost Improvements, 76
Operational Costs Profit Impact From Distribution Costs, 66
Operational Costs Profit Impact From Materials Costs, 60
Operational Costs Profit Impact From Payroll Cost, 62
Operational Costs Profit Impact From Process Cost, 64
Operational Costs Research & Product Cost Objectives, 36
Operational Costs Self Generated Funds: Best Scenario, 100
Operational Costs Self Generated Funds: Worst Scenario, 98
Operational Costs Short Term Borrowing Scenarios, 52
Operational Costs Systems Investment, 38
Operational Costs Trading Credit Extension & Margins, 102
Operational Costs Trading & Operating Margins & Prices, 58
Operational Margins Administration Cost Scenarios, 45
Operational Margins Administrative & General Expenses, 35
Operational Margins Asset Sales: 10% of Assets, 95
Operational Margins Asset Sales: 25% of Assets, 97
Operational Margins Asset Sales: 5% of Assets, 93
Operational Margins Bank Borrowing: 3% Inflation, 85
Operational Margins Bank Borrowing: 6% Inflation, 87
Operational Margins Bank Borrowing: 9% Inflation, 89
Operational Margins Bank Borrowing: Base Scenarios, 83
Operational Margins Base Forecast : Best Market, 21
Operational Margins Base Forecast : Median Market, 23
Operational Margins Base Forecast : Worst Market, 25
Operational Margins Bond / Debentures Scenarios, 91
Operational Margins Capital Cost Scenarios, 47
Operational Margins Capital Investments: Customers, 75
Operational Margins Capital Investments: Distribution, 73
Operational Margins Capital Investments: Processes, 69, 71
Operational Margins Cost Structure Improvement, 33
Operational Margins Customer Handling Improvements, 79
Operational Margins Depreciation & Capitalization, 51
Operational Margins Financial & Debt Servicing Costs, 57
Operational Margins Long Term Financial Scenarios, 55
Operational Margins Marketing Expenditure, 27
Operational Margins Materials & Energy Cost Scenario, 41
Operational Margins New Equity Scenarios, 81
Operational Margins New Plant + Equipment Investments, 29
Operational Margins New Technology Investment, 31
Operational Margins Payroll & Staff Cost Scenarios, 43
Operational Margins Plant & Equipment Cost Scenarios, 49
Operational Margins Product Cost Improvements, 77
Operational Margins Profit Impact From Distribution, 67
Operational Margins Profit Impact From Materials Costs, 61
Operational Margins Profit Impact From Payroll Costs, 63
Operational Margins Profit Impact From Process Costs, 65
Operational Margins Research & Product Cost Objectives, 37
Operational Margins Self Generated Funds: Best, 101
Operational Margins Self Generated Funds: Worst, 99
Operational Margins Short Term Borrowing Scenarios, 53
Operational Margins Systems Investment, 39
Operational Margins Trading Credit Extension & Margins, 103
Operational Margins Trading & Operating Margins, 59
Operational Ratios & Margins Historic, 17

Price actually paid net of discounting, 1
PRICE PAID BY End Users , 1
PROFIT RISK SCENARIOS FORECASTS, 19

REAL TERMS, 5
REPORT TYPES, 8
Retail Sale Prices, 1
RETAIL VALUES OR PRICES, 1

Supplier or Producer Prices, 1

TERMS USED IN THIS REPORT, 1
TRADING AREA, 4
Trend figures, 5

VALUE TERMS AND VOLUME TERMS, 1

Wholesale or Distributors Sale Prices, 1
WHOLESALE VALUES OR PRICES, 1